رقابت پذیری اقتصادی نیروگاههای هسته ای در ایران

In this paper, competitiveness of nuclear power plants in comparison with fossil fuel power plants in Iran has been evaluated. For the first step, different factors affecting economic competitiveness of thermal power plants such as Investment, O&M and Fuel Costs, Discount Rate and Environmental Impacts has been studied. To analyse the effect of each parameter, screening curve method has been used. Taking into account that the real nuclear power competitiveness in Iran is against combine-cycle gas fired power plants, therefore the break even points of gas price(as the most important parameter in fossil fuel plants cost) and overnight investment cost as the most important parameter in nuclear power plant cost) has been calculated. Results show that gas price break even point for optimistic 1500$/kW nuclear power plant investment cost is 7 cents/m^3. By increasing the investment cost from 1500 to 2500 $/kW the breakeven point changes from 7 to 17 cents/m^3. As the production cost of gas is between 3 - 4.5 cents/m^3 and its opportunity cost is near zero (as a result of low potential of export in comparison with gas reservoirs), economic competitiveness of nuclear power plants in Iran is questionable. Increase in the gas price and export capability will lead to better competitiveness of nuclear power plants. It should be mentioned that the results are based on latest economic data of year 2005 – 2007 and can be updated.